厄尔尼诺或引发巴西大豆锈病危机0梗苞黄堇
厄尔尼诺或引发巴西大豆锈病危机
数据统计显示,受厄尔尼诺现象影响,巴西南部雨患频繁,催生了病虫害的发生发作,目前,已在巴西南部大豆产区发现的亚洲大豆锈病事件,数量为上一年的两倍左右。
来自病虫害监测防治机构的消息显示,自6月份至今,监测到大豆真菌病害现象在巴西已发生73次之多,而其中大部分来自于潮湿的南方地区,里约格朗德、帕拉纳则最有代表性。而一年前,这一数据仅为43次。
厄尔尼诺导致巴西南部地区出现更多降雨,给病害发展提供了滋生的土壤。来自巴西某农业研究机构的植物病理学家claudiagodoy称,由于气候现象的影响,巴西南部地区将变得更加多雨潮湿,而北部地区则可能表现更为干燥。
2015/16年度,巴西大豆生产水平或将达到1亿吨高位。大豆锈病在历年巴西大豆生产过程中也并不算罕见。本次大豆生产季初期,便传出大豆锈病事件的消息,而真正官方确认并公布的病害出现,始于今年9月份。一般来说,如果大豆锈病能够被及时控制,不会对产量造成严重影响,但需要及早将病害现象告知农户,以采取及时措施。
气象机构称,本次厄尔尼诺事件将成为有记录以来最强的一次,而早在2009/10农作物生产季,厄尔尼诺就曾对巴西谷物收割造成过影响。
农业气象学家称,在整个大豆生产期内,大豆锈病可能保持较高的发作趋势,从2016年1月至4月,降水可能还将频繁发生,伴随整个大豆收获期,大豆生产还将面临威胁。
植物病理学家claudiagodoy则表示,厄尔尼诺现象还导致了巴西南部地区气温水平升高,以至于7、8月份耕地就有一些早先的植被和作物种子发芽,同时也催生了害虫的发生发展。
大豆是巴西的重要的经济作物,南美洲地区更是全球最大的油籽出口地区。近年来,随着巴西农户逐渐掌握了病虫害防治技术,一旦病虫害出现发作苗头,农户可以快速采取反制措施,控制其发生和发展。
但如果生产成本过高,诸如农药、化肥等农资价格上涨,可能导致种植业的收入水平受到挤压,农户则可能少用或者采用廉价的杀虫剂来对抗病虫害的威胁,显然,采用这样的措施显然对控制大豆生产不佳。
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原文如下:
the number of asian soybean rust fungus cases in brazil has nearly doubled from the previous
year due to heavy rainfall in the south triggered by el niño, according to industry data. from june until thursday, there have been 73 incidents of the fungus that attacks plants in
humid conditions, mostly in the southern states of rio grande do sul and parana, according to
the public-private anti-fungus consortium that monitors the sector. a year earlier, there were 43 cases of fungus at this time. "el niño causes a higher average rainfall in the south, favoring rust (fungus)," said claudia
godoy, a plant pathologist at agricultural research body embrapa soy, referring to the
climate phenomenon that tends to bring rain to southern brazil and drought to the northeast. rust detected early in the season that officially started in september is not a particularly
large risk for production as the fungus can be controlled, but it should alert farmers, godoy
said. brazil is forecast to produce a record 2015/16 soy crop that could surpass 100 million
tonnes. el niño, the first to influence brazil's grain harvest since the 2009/10 crop year, will
likely strengthen before the end of the year and become one of the strongest on record, the
u.n. weather agency said this month. "there is a very high tendency for rust all season," said agrometeorologist marco antonio dos
santos, of somar meteorologists. he said rains could continue into the harvest period, which
runs from january to april. according to godoy, el niño caused warmer than usual temperatures in southern brazil, meaning
some of the previous crops soy lingered in fields in july and august - a period when fields
should be cleared to prevent crop pests. soybeans are brazil's main cash crop and the south american country is the world's top
exporter of the oilseed. in recent years fungus, once a huge threat to brazil's emergence as
an agricultural powerhouse, has ceased to affect output as farmers learned to use fungicides
effectively. in a year with high costs of inputted goods like pesticides and fertilizers due to a strong
dollar, crop margins are expected to be tight and farmers may be tempted to apply less or opt
for cheaper fungicides, said mario lucio melo, technical coordinator of the coopavel
cooperative in western parana state. "this can't happen - farmers must use the best products available," he said.
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